Davis Mills Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 226.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Davis Mills has been among the worst QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging 200.0 yards per game while grading out in the 25th percentile.
Davis Mills's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.1% to 60.4%.
Davis Mills has been among the least effective passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 6.50 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 22nd percentile.

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