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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 223.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 204.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 223.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.

The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Davis Mills's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.1% to 60.7%.

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