Davis Mills Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 170.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 175.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 170.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a giant 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the most yards in the NFL (304.0 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in the league vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (73.0%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 24.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Davis Mills's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 61.7%.

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