Davis Mills Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 220.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Davis Mills has been among the weakest passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 198.0 yards per game while grading out in the 18th percentile.
Davis Mills has been among the least efficient passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 6.53 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 19th percentile.