Davis Mills Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Pass Attempts

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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