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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Pass Attempts
Player Prop Week 10

New York Giants vs Houston Texans

Davis Mills Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Texans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 10th-least in the league.

The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Houston Texans have gone for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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