Davis Mills Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Interceptions

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-170/+140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Davis Mills has averaged 0.98 interceptions per game this year, grading out in the 16th percentile among quarterbacks.
The New York Giants have intercepted 0.14 balls per game this year, grading out as the worst defense in football by this metric
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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