Davis Mills Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Completions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+109/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 38.5 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in football versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.