Davis Mills Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Completions

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-133/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Davis Mills's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.1% to 60.4%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (65.8%).
The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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