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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Completions
Player Prop Week 10

New York Giants vs Houston Texans

Davis Mills Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-156/+117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ +117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Texans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 10th-least in the league.

The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Davis Mills's throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 62.1%.

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