David Sills Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

David Sills

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

David Sills Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects David Sills to be a more important option in his team's passing game this week (15.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.