David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Browns this year (a colossal 66.2 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The leading projections forecast David Njoku to notch 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
David Njoku has been a key part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 20.7% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
David Njoku's 66.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a remarkable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 77.2% figure.

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