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David Njoku

David Njoku Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

David Njoku's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 70.4% to 84.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

David Njoku has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 88.6% of snaps vs just 88.6% last year.

The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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