David Njoku Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku has accrued a whopping 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among TEs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
David Njoku has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 88.6% of snaps vs just 88.6% last year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.