David Njoku Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
David Njoku has totaled a colossal 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku's 25.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 79th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
David Njoku's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.4% to 66.9%.
David Njoku's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 6.91 yards-per-target vs a 8.14 rate last year.

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