David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+289/-504).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -449 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -504.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
David Njoku has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
David Njoku has accumulated a monstrous 36.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among TEs.
David Njoku's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 26.5.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (59.6%) versus tight ends this year (59.6%).

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