David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+303/-541).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -481 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -541.

Key Factors

Favors Over

David Njoku has accumulated a colossal 33.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku's 38.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 26.5.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
David Njoku's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.4% to 84.5%.
David Njoku ranks in the 77th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (22.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (62%) versus TEs this year (62.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the least TDs through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.

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