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David Njoku

David Njoku Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+271/-456).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -377 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -456.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

David Njoku has accrued a whopping 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among TEs.

David Njoku's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 81st percentile for TEs.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (21.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).

The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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