David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+363/-723).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -547 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -723.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
David Njoku has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku has totaled a colossal 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku's 25.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 79th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
David Njoku's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.4% to 66.9%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up the 3rd-least TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.