David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+380/-782).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +436 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +380.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
David Njoku has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku has totaled a colossal 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among TEs.
David Njoku's 25.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for tight ends.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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