David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-355).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
David Njoku has put up many more air yards this season (50.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).
David Njoku's 41.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 26.5.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
David Njoku's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 70.4% to 82.6%.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to be a much smaller piece of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (24.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (29.5% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends project as the 10th-best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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