David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+273/-461).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -368 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -461.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
David Njoku has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (52.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
David Njoku's 42.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 26.5.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the 7th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (21.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (28.6% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 5th-least passing TDs in football to tight ends: 0.17 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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