David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+338/-644).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +346 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +338.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 62.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
David Njoku has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (19.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).

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