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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Lions are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

The predictive model expects the Lions to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

With an outstanding tally of 4.84 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), David Montgomery rates among the leading pure runners in the NFL this year.

The Bears defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

After accounting for 56.4% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, David Montgomery has had a smaller role in the run game this season, now taking on only 45.8%.

David Montgomery's 64.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year marks an impressive regression in his running ability over last year's 77.0 mark.

The Bears safeties grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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