David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The leading projections forecast David Montgomery to accumulate 16.4 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
Our trusted projections expect David Montgomery to be a less important option in his offense's running game in this week's contest (15.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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