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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).

The Lions O-line profiles as the 5th-best in football last year at blocking for the run game.

David Montgomery's 92.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows an impressive progression in his rushing talent over last year's 48.0 figure.

David Montgomery's ground efficiency has gotten a boost this year, totaling 5.20 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 3.84 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

While David Montgomery has received 61.0% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Detroit's ground game in this week's game at 45.9%.

This year, the porous Bears run defense has been torched for a monstrous 3.44 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's running game: the 32nd-highest rate in the league.

When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Chicago's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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