David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 13.5 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (51.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (39.4% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
David Montgomery's ground efficiency (3.83 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (16th percentile among RBs).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season.

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