David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (+103/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 13.4 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
David Montgomery has been much less involved in his team's run game this year (44.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (74.1%).
David Montgomery has run for substantially fewer yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).

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