David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles profile as the 6th-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
David Montgomery has been much less involved in his team's running game this year (45.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (74.1%).
David Montgomery has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).

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