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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 15.2 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
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