David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-140/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 63.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 19.1 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be much less involved in his team's run game this week (55.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.8% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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