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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 13.4 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.

The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.

Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (145 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

David Montgomery has been a much smaller part of his team's running game this season (46.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (74.1%).

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