David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 22.6 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (66.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (43.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will be starting backup quarterback Trevor Siemian in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
David Montgomery has run for many fewer yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).