David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 13.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (154 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (33.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
David Montgomery has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
David Montgomery's ground effectiveness (3.53 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (10th percentile among RBs).

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