David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 14.3 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has generated 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (95th percentile).
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (74.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
David Montgomery's running efficiency (3.77 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (22nd percentile among RBs).