David Montgomery Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+228/-357).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -289 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -357.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
David Montgomery has earned 41.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
David Montgomery has rushed for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (78th percentile).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles profile as the 6th-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the NFL (0.29 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

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