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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+201/-301).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -289 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -301.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.

The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the league (1.75 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.

The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.

The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

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