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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+145/-175).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.9% red zone run rate.

David Montgomery has rushed for 0.47 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in football among RBs (90th percentile).

Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.37 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

The Houston Texans safeties rank as the 31st-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be much less involved in his team's run game near the goal line this week (54.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.2% in games he has played).

The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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