David Montgomery Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+276/-470).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -367 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -470.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.2% red zone run rate.
David Montgomery has earned 66.1% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has run for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in football among RBs (90th percentile).
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.72 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.