David Montgomery Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-253).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +187 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +176.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 51.2% red zone run rate.
David Montgomery has been given 46.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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