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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 50.5% red zone run rate.

David Montgomery has received 44.8% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.

The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.

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