David Montgomery Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-228).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -202 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -228.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 51.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (67.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.8% in games he has played).
David Montgomery has rushed for 0.30 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (75th percentile).
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.