David Montgomery Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+148/-205).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
David Montgomery has received 42.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
Opposing teams have run for the 5th-most TDs in the NFL (1.30 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.

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