David Montgomery Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
David Montgomery has been given 42.4% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in football (1.50 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 27th-worst group of safeties in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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