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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-138/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

David Montgomery's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 7.4.

David Montgomery's receiving talent has improved this year, averaging 2.2 adjusted catches compared to just 1.1 last year.

David Montgomery's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 69.7% to 96.1%.

This year, the shaky Chicago Bears pass defense has been torched for a whopping 87.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 8th-highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Lions are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.

When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Chicago's safety corps has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

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