David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, David Montgomery is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 78th percentile among RBs with 3.2 targets.
While David Montgomery has received 3.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Detroit's passing attack in this contest at 10.0%.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Carolina's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 10th-best in football.

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