David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Detroit O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Broncos linebackers profile as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
David Montgomery's 32.2% Route% this year illustrates a significant decline in his passing game volume over last year's 56.7% mark.
David Montgomery's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 88.0% to 73.1%.

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