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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.

David Montgomery has been among the best possession receivers in the league among RBs, completing a stellar 88.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in the NFL (91.2%) versus RBs since the start of last season (91.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this week (6.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.1% in games he has played).

The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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