David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 3.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 13.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 86.8% to 89.8%.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.