David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
David Montgomery has run a route on 58.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 3.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has been among the most reliable receivers in football among RBs, completing a terrific 85.6% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

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