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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.

David Montgomery has run a route on 58.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 3.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

David Montgomery has been among the most reliable receivers in football among RBs, completing a terrific 85.6% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 89th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

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